Addendum to 10/14 post
Summary (details follow)
Russia’s imminent nuclear-exercises could* yield a detonation that: 1) is followed immediately by a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, 2) impacts the response of the U.S. et al. to the blockade (e.g., reduces/undoes willingness to respond militarily).
* From below:
Re: Putin could benefit/BENEFIT from ‘detonation → blockade’
. . . So the Biden admin is in the market for ways to leverage FEAR (e.g., via my threat-analysis[*]) to gain allies’ help with said strangling [of “large segments of the Chinese technology industry”].
. . . Putin and Xi are at least somewhat likely to conclude that ‘detonation → blockade’ ASAP is a MUST
* t-a links to 10/14 post
Re: said exercises yielding a detonation
From the October 14, 2022 article syndicated by Reuters titled “Is this a drill? Upcoming Russian nuclear exercises a challenge for the West” (my emphases):
With Russia expected to soon carry out large-scale drills of its nuclear forces as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to use them, the United States and its allies will be challenged to ensure they can spot the difference between exercises and the real thing.
Russia typically holds major annual nuclear exercises around this time of year, and U.S. and Western officials expect them perhaps in just days. They will likely include the test launch of ballistic missiles, U.S. officials say.
But with Putin having openly threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia in its unraveling invasion of Ukraine, some Western officials are worried Moscow could deliberately try to muddy the waters about its intentions.
From an October 13, 2022 article on Bloomberg.com (my emphases):
Russia has conducted other military drills since its invasion of Ukraine, and they were not a prelude to bigger action against Kyiv.
Still, “if I were going to hide an attack, that’s how I would do it, exercises,” said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. He noted Russia had previously used exercises to mask preparations for attacks, including in its invasion of Georgia in 2008. In the case of Ukraine, Russia did not attempt to hide its military buildup on the border before it went in.
Moving from exercise to an operation could be fairly swift, making the window to assess and react to any switch very tight, according to a European defense official who asked not to be identified talking about sensitive matters.
From an October 15, 2022 article on TheAtlantic.com (my emphases):
Through its satellites, other surveillance capabilities, and various forms of on-the-ground intelligence, the U.S. government would probably (not certainly) be able to spot signs of Russian efforts to move tactical nuclear weapons out of storage facilities.
A particular challenge with reading the Kremlin’s tea leaves is that Russia has nearly two dozen “dual use” delivery systems, some already being used in the war in Ukraine, which can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. U.S. intelligence could “assume they have conventional warheads on them, but actually they don’t,” because Putin has “switched them out somewhere and we didn’t detect that,” Kroenig noted. “So it is possible, I guess, that we just start seeing mushroom clouds in Ukraine . . .”
From an October 24, 2022 article in The New York Times:
“One senior U.S. official said there were new, troubling developments involving Russia’s nuclear arsenal. The official asked for anonymity and declined to provide any details, given the sensitivity of the issue.
. . . American officials have said they had seen no movement of any of Russia’s 2,000 or so tactical nuclear weapons. Because the weapons are small, it is unclear whether they would see the weapons—though they may see or hear activity by Russia’s nuclear-trained forces.”
“Defense Department officials were surprised when two days later, [“Russian defense minister”] Mr. Shoigu requested another call, at 7:30 a.m. Sunday, in which he accused Ukraine of preparing to use a dirty bomb, two officials said.
The allegation, which the United States has said was baseless, spooked senior defense and military officials, who expressed concern that Moscow might be using the false flag as a distraction, masking some other more ominous development.
That possibility only heightened concerns among already jittery senior Pentagon officials about Russia’s next possible step up the escalation ladder.”
From an October 25, 2022 article in The New York Times:
In American intelligence agencies and the Pentagon, there is fear Russia would stage a provocation to justify using a nuclear weapon in response.
American officials appeared to have some intelligence that backed up the fear, but they refused to discuss what it is, or how convincing it is.
Indicators that the U.S. et al. are working hard to deter a detonation of said kind
From an October 20, 2022 article in The Washington Post (my emphases):
This week, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization started a round of exercises of its nuclear capabilities in Western Europe . . .
These are big, muscular events, and at least 14 of NATO’s 30 member nations (soon to be 32 with the welcome additions of Sweden and Finland) will participate. Typically, the exercises would include dozens of fighter aircraft from various member states, large Airborne Early Warning Aircraft that are under NATO’s direct command, and sufficient refueling aircraft to support the air armada. Long-range US strategic bombers (the venerable but capable B-52s based in North Dakota) are participating as well.
. . . The war games will be held more than 500 miles from the borders of the Russian Federation. Generally, they run 10 to 14 days . . . Nicknamed Steadfast Noon, they almost certainly will not involve actual tactical nuclear weapons.
From the October 21, 2022 article on CBSnews.com titled “The U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine’s border” (my emphases):
[The] 101st Airborne Division has been deployed to Europe for the first time in almost 80 years amid soaring tension between Russia and the American-led NATO military alliance. The light infantry unit, nicknamed the “Screaming Eagles,” is trained to deploy on any battlefield in the world within hours, ready to fight.
CBS News joined the division’s Deputy Commander, Brigadier General John Lubas, and Colonel Edwin Matthaidess, Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, on a Black Hawk helicopter for the hour-long ride to the very edge of NATO territory—only around three miles from Romania’s border with Ukraine.
. . . [T]he Black Hawk eventually touched down at a forward operating site where U.S. and Romanian troops were pounding targets during a joint ground and air assault exercise.
The tank rounds and artillery fire were real. The drill was meant to recreate the battles Ukraine’s forces are fighting every day against Russian troops, just across the border.
. . . Matthaidess told CBS News that he and his troops were the closest American forces to the fighting in Ukraine. From their vantage point, they’ve been “closely watching” the Russian forces, “building objectives to practice against” and conducting drills that “replicate exactly what's going on” in the war.
. . . The “Screaming Eagles” commanders told CBS News repeatedly that they are always “ready to fight tonight,” and while they’re there to defend NATO territory, if the fighting escalates or there’s any attack on NATO, they’re fully prepared to cross the border into Ukraine.
Re: “followed immediately by . . . blockade” and “detonation . . . impacts the response of the U.S. et al.”
From an October 18, 2022 article in The Japan Times (my emphases):
[G]iven Taiwan’s proximity to China—they are about 177 kilometers (110 miles) apart—and the size of both the PLA Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard, Beijing could probably establish a naval blockade relatively quickly.
China has steadily increased its maritime and air presence in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, particularly following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in early August. This means that the forces needed to implement a nonkinetic blockade or quarantine are largely already in the area and that there would be very little warning of such an operation.
From an October 20, 2022 article on FT.com (site of Financial Times):
US Navy Chief [Mike Gilday] warns China could invade Taiwan . . .
. . . “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window [my emphasis] or potentially a 2023 window,” Gilday told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday. “I don’t mean at all to be alarmist . . . it’s just that we can’t wish that away.”
Gilday’s comments came two days after US secretary of state [sic] Anthony Blinken said China was “determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” . . .
From October 2022 book Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, by a Tufts University professor:
A partial air and maritime blockade would be impossible for Taiwan to defeat on its own. Even if the U.S. and Japanese militaries joined Taiwan to try and break the blockade, it would be difficult to do. China has powerful weapons systems arrayed along its shores. A blockade wouldn’t need to be perfectly effective to strangle the island’s trade. Ending a blockade would require Taiwan and its friends—mainly, the U.S.—to disable hundreds of Chinese military systems sitting on Chinese territory. A blockade-busting operation could easily spiral into a bloody great power war.
From the October 18, 2022 article in The Washington Post titled “China plans to seize Taiwan on ‘much faster timeline,’ Blinken says”:
Chinese President Xi Jinping looks set to secure a precedent-breaking third term at a Chinese Communist Party congress this week.
In particular, a secure/emboldened Xi might blockade Taiwan (very) soon as a means of preserving/regaining access to top-quality microprocessors.
From an October 13, 2022 article in The New York Times (my emphases):
In conversations with American executives this spring, top officials in the Biden administration revealed an aggressive plan to counter the Chinese military’s rapid technological advances.
China was using supercomputing and artificial intelligence to develop stealth and hypersonic weapons systems, and to try to crack the U.S. government’s most encrypted messaging, according to intelligence reports. For months, administration officials debated what they could do to hobble the country’s progress.
They saw a path: The Biden administration would use U.S. influence over global technology and supply chains to try to choke off China’s access to advanced chips and chip production tools needed to power those abilities.
. . . The administration’s concerns about China’s tech ambitions culminated last week in the unveiling of the most stringent controls by the U.S. government on technology exports to the country in decades . . .
The package of restrictions allows the administration to cut off China from certain advanced chips made by American and foreign companies that use U.S. technology.
. . . Companies immediately began halting shipments to China. But U.S. officials said they would issue licenses on a case-by-case basis so some non-Chinese companies could continue supplying their Chinese facilities with support and components. Intel, TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.], Samsung and SK Hynix said they had received temporary exemptions to the rules.
From Chip War:
The United States still has a stranglehold on the silicon chips that gave Silicon Valley its name, though its position has weakened dangerously. China now spends more money each year importing chips than it spends on oil.
From an October 4, 2022 article on TheAtlantic.com:
Taiwan today manufactures most of the world’s microchips . . . including about 92 percent of all advanced microchips . . .
From a November 19, 2022 article on ForeignPolicy.com:
The U.S. administration pressed the Dutch government hard to ensure that it would forbid ASML from working with Chinese companies. The Netherlands eventually gave in to U.S. pressure and revoked ASML’s export license to China.
For Bejing, this was a sure sign of problems to come: the Dutch firm is the only company in the world that masters [i.e., provides] the extreme ultraviolet technology that [Chinese chip-maker] SMIC needs to manufacture highly advanced chips.
Title of an October 16, 2022 article on Bloomberg.com:
China’s Xi Vows Victory in Tech Battle After US Chip Curbs
From Chip War:
A blockade is an act of war, but no one would want to shoot first. If the U.S. did nothing, the impact on Taiwan’s will to fight could be devastating. If China then demanded that TSMC restart chip fabrication for Huawei and other Chinese companies, or even to transfer critical personnel and know-how to the mainland, would Taiwan be able to say no?
Re: Putin could benefit/BENEFIT from ‘detonation → blockade’
From Chip War:
Russia’s ongoing difficulties with fabricating and acquiring chips explains why the country’s drones shot down over Ukraine are full of foreign microelectronics. It also explains why Russia’s military continues to rely extensively on non-precision-guided munitions. A recent analysis of Russia’s war in Syria found that up to 95 percent of munitions dropped were unguided. The fact that Russia faced shortages of guided cruise missiles within several weeks of attacking Ukraine is also partly due to the sorry state of its semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, Ukraine has received huge stockpiles of guided munitions from the West, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles that rely on over 200 semiconductors each as they home in on enemy tanks.
Russia’s dependence on foreign semiconductor technology has given the United States and its allies a powerful point of leverage. After Russia invaded, the U.S. rolled out sweeping restrictions on the sale of certain types of chips across Russia’s tech, defense, and telecoms sectors, which was coordinated with partners in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Key chipmakers from America’s Intel to Taiwan’s TSMC have now cut off the Kremlin. Russia’s manufacturing sector has faced wrenching disruptions, with a substantial portion of Russian auto production knocked offline. Even in sensitive sectors like defense, Russian factories are taking evasive maneuvers such as deploying chips intended for dishwashers into missile systems, according to U.S. intelligence. Russia has little recourse other than to cut its consumption of chips . . .
Re: China could leverage its blockade to extract all manner of concessions from the U.S. et al.
e.g., China could preserve/(re)gain access to desired technologies beyond microchips
From an October 10, 2022 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal co-authored by former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:
If TSMC is still able to produce chips but China dictates the terms of access, companies that rely on TSMC and other Taiwanese semiconductor companies will be left at the mercy of Beijing’s demands.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, speaking at Stanford University on October 17, 2022:
The amount of commercial traffic that goes through the [Taiwan] straits every single day and has an impact on economies around the world is enormous. If that were to be disrupted as a result of a crisis, countries around the world would suffer.
The last group of people I need to tell this is right here in this room. On semiconductors, if Taiwanese production were disrupted as a result of a crisis, you would have an economic crisis around the world.
From the October 11, 2022 report by a former U.S.-Defense-Department official who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
On October 7 . . . [t]he Biden administration announced a massive policy shift on semiconductor exports to China as well as revised rules for how the lists of restricted parties are managed. In recent decades, U.S. semiconductor policy has been primarily market driven and laissez faire. With the new policy, which comes on the heels of the CHIPS Act’s passage, the United States is firmly focused on retaining control over “chokepoint” (or as it is sometimes translated from Chinese, “stranglehold”) technologies in the global semiconductor technology supply chain.
The most important chokepoints in the context of this discussion are AI chip designs, electronic design automation software, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and equipment components [my emphasis]. The Biden administration’s latest actions simultaneously exploit U.S. dominance across all four of these chokepoints. In doing so, these actions demonstrate an unprecedented degree of U.S. government intervention to not only preserve chokepoint control but also begin a new U.S. policy of actively strangling large segments of the Chinese technology industry—strangling with an intent to kill.
Re: Putin, Xi et al. are at least somewhat likely to conclude that ‘detonation → blockade’ ASAP is a MUST
Re: said strangling, the U.S. has had mixed success gaining the support of allies:
From said October 13, 2022 article in The New York Times:
[T]he [Biden] administration spent months in discussions with allies, including the Dutch, Japanese, South Korean, Israeli and British governments, and tried to persuade some of them to issue restrictions alongside the United States.
But some of those governments have been hesitant to cut off important commerce with China, one of the world’s largest technology markets. So the Biden administration decided to act alone, without public measures from allies.
So the Biden admin is in the market for ways to leverage FEAR (e.g., via my threat-analysis) to gain allies’ help with said strangling.
IMPORTANTLYIMPORTANTLYIMPORTANTLYIMPORTANTLY, Putin and Xi are at least:
VERY likely to be aware that they’re IMPERILED directly and/or indirectly for the reasons detailed in my threat-analysis (e.g., PsIMP)
VERY likely to believe that the Biden admin is: 1) aware of PsIMP and its implications for Putin, Xi and the other rulers of repressive kleptocracies, 2) raising the awareness of U.S. allies (e.g., awareness re: Ps RESISTING PsIMP)
So Putin and Xi are at least VERY likely to:
FEAR that said strangling will ADVANCE rapidly, in parallel with related ADVANCES (e.g., sanctions, asset seizures, military preparations by democracies*)
be in the market for ways to prevent the ADVANCE(S)
Re: Putin and Xi are likely to believe that said detonation might reduce/undo the willingness of the U.S. et al. to respond militarily to said blockade:
From an October 6, 2022 article in The New York Times:
[President] Biden said he did not think it would be possible for Russia to use a tactical weapon and “not end up with Armageddon.”
From 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, by the Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs:
At the height of the crisis, which lasted for a tense thirteen days, [President] Kennedy confided to his brother Robert that he believed the chances it would end in nuclear war were “between one-in-three and even[*].” Nothing historians have discovered since has lengthened those odds.
From 2020 book Gambling with Armageddon: Nuclear Roulette from Hiroshima to the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1945–1962, by a Pulitzer Prize recipient:
In a review of Thirteen Days . . . former secretary of state Dean Acheson asserted that war was avoided due to “plain dumb luck.” When I began my research for this book I was certain he was wrong. Now that I am finished I know he was right.
From the May 2022 article on ForeignAffairs.com titled “A Fight Over Taiwan Could Go Nuclear: War-Gaming Reveals How a U.S.-Chinese Conflict Might Escalate”:
A recent war game, conducted by the Center for a New American Security in conjunction with the NBC program “Meet the Press,” demonstrated just how quickly such a conflict could escalate.
* 50% x 2 = . . .
So, again, Putin and Xi are at least somewhat likely to conclude that ‘detonation → blockade’ ASAP is a MUST #sigh #bleep
* From the October 5, 2022 article in The New York Times titled “U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot”:
American officials are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan after studying recent naval and air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island, according to current and former officials.
The exercises showed that China would probably blockade the island as a prelude to any attempted invasion, and Taiwan would have to hold out on its own until the United States or other nations intervened . . .
. . . Officials in the administration of Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, say they recognize the need to stockpile smaller weapons but point out that there are significant lags between orders and shipments.
. . . Arms directors from the United States and more than 40 other nations met last week in Brussels to discuss long-term supply and production issues.
From an October 19, 2022 article on Reuters.com (my emphasis):
Between China's 20th Communist Party Congress, that began Sunday, and the next one in 2027, Japan will undertake its biggest arms buildup since World War Two in a race to deter Beijing from war in East Asia, according to Japanese government officials and security analysts.
Japan identified China as its chief adversary in its 2019 defence white paper, worried that Beijing's flouting of international norms, pressure on Taiwan and rapid military modernisation posed a serious security threat. That anxiety has intensified since Russia invaded Ukraine . . .
. . . For Japan, losing Taiwan to mainland Chinese control could be a disaster because it would jeopardise key shipping lanes that supply nearly all Japan’s oil and many of the materials it uses for manufacturing.
From the October 2022 publication (.pdf) of the U.S.’s National Security Strategy:
Our AUKUS security partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom promotes stability in the Indo-Pacific while deepening defense and technology integration. . . . The revitalized Quad, which brings the United States together with Japan, India, and Australia, addresses regional challenges and has demonstrated its ability to deliver for the Indo-Pacific . . .
Bonus motivation for Putin and Xi to undertake ‘detonation → blockade’ ASAP
Allegory:
We know that the lion(ess) is stronger than the lion-tamer, and so does the lion-tamer. The problem is that the lion(ess) does not know it.
If/when there’s growing awareness of (a variant of) my threat-analysis among the populations of China and Russia, lion(esse)s’ AWAKENINGS might be enabled/expedited (e.g., awareness via the Biden admin).
From the October 17, 2022 article in The New York Times titled “Iran’s Loyal Security Forces Protect Ruling System That Protesters Want to Topple”:
The Revolutionary Guards—the country’s most powerful military force—have become so deeply woven into Iran’s economy and power structure that they have everything to lose if the system falls.
. . . With hundreds of thousands of members today, the Guards are Iran’s most powerful military force as well as major players in its economy. Many analysts argue that Iran is no longer a theocracy ruled by Shiite clerics, but a military state ruled by the Guards.
. . . [The Guards] own factories and corporations and subsidiaries in banking, infrastructure, housing, airlines, tourism and other sectors. They help Iran circumvent sanctions through a web of smuggling operations. They are not accountable to the government, even when corruption dealings become public.
. . . In the last major wave of nationwide protests, in November 2019, security forces killed more than 400 people, according to rights groups, which say the actual numbers are probably much higher than that. Most were shot at close range in the head and neck over less than one week, according to these groups.
But this time, women and young Iranians are leading the protests, and the scenes of violence—sometime lethal—against them have prompted calls for the armed forces to put down their guns and to stop the killing.
“I don’t think that Iran’s military and security forces, as brutal as they can be, are prepared to be ready to be known as the murderers of Iran’s daughters,” said Mr. Ostovar, the history professor. “They have to kill a lot of women to get this extinguished, and they can’t kill them all.”
Precedent re: ‘detonation → blockade’ ASAP
From a 1991 article in The Washington Post:
“Americans will always consider the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, the ultimate act of international treachery, a blow delivered without warning. But the prevailing Japanese view has always explained the attack in quite different terms, portraying it as a predictable response to American actions that left Japan mortally vulnerable and with no alternative but to strike.
. . . The Japanese Navy began planning a Pearl Harbor attack in 1940, more than a year before the actual strike. A number of army leaders wanted to take advantage of Hitler’s June 1941 attack on the Soviet Union by seizing [oil-RICH] Siberia. Hitler himself pressed for this.”
“The Japanese military was obsessed with oil. Its strategists had carefully studied the lessons of World War I, in which oil and the internal combustion engine had proved of decisive importance. The Japanese military machine was almost entirely dependent upon imported oil—and that meant the United States, which supplied about 80 percent of Japan’s supplies in those days. (Much of the rest came from the Dutch East Indies—now Indonesia.)
. . . Washington froze Japan's financial assets in the United States. This effectively cut off Tokyo’s ability to buy oil—a de facto petroleum embargo. The British and Dutch did the same, shutting off supplies from the East Indies.
. . . By early autumn of 1941, the fateful decision was made to launch all-out Asian conquest, with East Indies oil the most important target.
. . . The attack on Pearl Harbor was intended to wreck the U.S. fleet and protect Japan's flank as it launched its huge Dec. 7-8 assault throughout Asia—from Hong Kong and Singapore to Thailand and the Philippines. Both objectives were achieved, and soon Japanese tankers were once again transporting petroleum from the East Indies to the Home Islands.”
Re: purchases of (way-)out-of-the-money puts on TSMC’s stock could indicate a blockade of Taiwan has been green-lighted
From the 2006 paper in The Journal of Business titled “Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001” (JoB was published by The University of Chicago Press; my emphases):
After September 11, 2001, there was a great deal of speculation that the terrorists or their associates had traded in the option market on advanced knowledge of the impending attacks. This paper generates systematic information about option market activity that can be used to assess the option trading that precedes any event of interest. Examination of the option trading leading up to September 11 reveals that there was an unusually high level of put buying. This finding is consistent with informed investors having traded options in advance of the attacks.
Precedents for you et al. discounting the above
From the August 16, 2022 article in The Washington Post titled “Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion” (my emphases):
[A] senior [Biden-]administration official said . . . [that t]o many in Western Europe, what the Russians were doing was “all coercive diplomacy, [Putin] was just building up to see what he could get. He’s not going to invade . . . it’s crazy.”
. . . Macron and Merkel had been dealing with Putin for years and found it hard to believe he was so irrational as to launch a calamitous war.
. . . Kuleba and others in the government believed there would be a war, the Ukrainian foreign minister later said. But until the eve of the invasion, “I could not believe that we would face a war of such scale. The only country in the world that was persistently telling us” with such certainty “that there would be missile strikes was the United States of America. . . . Every other country was not sharing this analysis and [instead was] saying, yes, war is possible, but it will be rather a localized conflict in the east of Ukraine.”
“Put yourself in our shoes,” Kuleba said. “You have, on the one hand, the U.S. telling you something completely unimaginable, and everyone else blinking an eye to you and saying this is not what we think is going to happen.”
. . . “If you discover the plans of somebody to attack a country and the plans appear to be completely bonkers, the chances are that you are going to react rationally and consider that it’s so bonkers, it’s not going to happen,” said Heisbourg, the French security expert.
From a December 10, 2021 article on Newsweek.com (my emphases):
[Hillary] Clinton also cautioned those who had a complacent attitude . . .
“I worry still that too many people are like, ‘Oh, it can’t be that bad’, or ‘it can’t go that far’. It’s a failure of imagination, and I wrote after January 6 that one of the findings . . . of the 9/11 Commission was a failure of imagination,” she told Geist.
Re: presentation-errors above
From 2012 book APE: Author, Publisher, Entrepreneur—How to Publish a Book, co-authored by Guy Kawasaki, a former chief evangelist at Apple:
Every time I turn in the “final” copy of a book [Kawasaki has (co-)authored twelve books], I believe that it’s perfect. In APE’s case, upward of seventy-five people reviewed the manuscript, and [co-author] Shawn [Welch] and I read it until we were sick of it. Take a wild guess at how many errors our copy editor found. The answer is 1,500. [APE is 410 pages.]
And, of course, I’m preoccupied with . . .